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蔡宜达_广阔的发展战略:外资仍将选择高股本回报率、高流动性的新浪财经类股。

????[广发战略]以台湾和韩国为例,从A股的变化、资本自由化对A股的影响等方面进行分析。来源:广发战略研究。报告摘要。1月14日,QFII正式公告增至3000亿美元,而最近的证监会副主席SaiD今年外资流入A股的金额预计将达到6000亿美元。资本市场开放步伐正在加快。对A股的深远影响是什么?我们将向台湾和韩国学习,期待资本自由化对A股的影响。资本市场自由化对我国台湾股市的影响:1983年至2003年,台湾资本市场逐步开放,分四个阶段,1996年开始纳入摩根士丹利资本国际。以摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)为节点,资本自由化的影响如下:在资本流入方面,台湾股市纳入摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)后的前10年,国内外资本流入加速,随后节奏逐渐放缓,但净流入仍占主导地位。在此期间,金融市场动荡将导致外资暂时流出;市场走势,外资流入不一定会导致牛市,但会显着改善国内外股市的联动性;投资者结构、机构投资者比例和外资比例。摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)后继续上升;成交量率,从长期来看,成交量率的中心已经下降。当前外商投资的地位特征:在产业上,外商投资偏好台湾电子、电脑等主导产业;在市场价值上,外商投资偏好资本化规模较大的股票;在利润上,外商投资偏好净资产收益率较高的股票;在流动性上,外商投资偏好高周转率。股票;在估值方面,外资不喜欢低估值。资本市场自由化对韩国股市的影响。1981年至1991年,韩国资本市场逐步开放,分四步进行,1992年以来,韩国股市已纳入摩根士丹利资本国际。资本自由化对韩国的影响与台湾基本相同,在资本流入方面,包括摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)之后的外资持续流入;在市场趋势方面,国内外股市的联动性明显改善;在投资者结构方面,机构比例S、外资大幅增加,从外资头寸特征看,外资偏好韩国主导产业,偏好资本化规模大、股本回报率高、流动性强的股票。资本市场自由化对A股的影响及台湾、韩国的经验。自2014年11月上海、深圳、香港证券交易所开盘以来,北方资金不断流入,2015后外商独资股票市值比例逐步上升。受摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)因子增加和19年财富增加的推动,预计北方资本流入规模将达到4000-5000亿元。在可预见的未来几年甚至10年内,外资不断流入A股将成为常态。外资不断流入A股并不一定意味着牛市,但未来国内外股市的联动将进一步改善,外资对A股的影响将越来越大。去年12月,我们在《外商投资路演的变化与变化-印象》中选择了外国投资者对境外路演A股的热点问题和意见。17年来,上海证券交易所零售A股交易的比例已超过80%,明显高于机构。根据台湾、韩国的经验和中国公民的特点,预计未来零售A股交易的比例将下降,但不会特别低,可能表明零售投资者和机构占总数的一半。目前,外资持股比例不到3%。预计这一趋势将在未来十年内增加。从头寸特征来看,预计外商投资仍偏好消费类股,偏好资本化程度高、净资产收益率高、流动性强的股票,但对低估值没有明显偏好。风险提示:资本市场化进程低于预期,外资流入规模和影响与预期不符。自2014年11月上海、深圳、香港开埠以来,北方资金不断流入。16年、17年和18年来,北方资本流入分别达到600亿元、2000亿元和3000亿元,有明显加快流入的迹象。随着富时指数A股的提升和摩根士丹利资本国际因素的改善,预计19年内通过陆港沟通机制加快外资流入。我们估计,19年来,北方资本净流入将达到4000-5000亿元。今年1月12日,在中国资本市场论坛上,中国证券监督管理委员会副主席方兴海表示,今年外资流入A股有望达到6000亿元。今年1月14日,国家外汇管理局合格投资者总配额由1500亿美元增加到3000亿美元。各种迹象表明,中国资本市场开放步伐正在加快。在可预见的未来几年甚至10年内,外资不断流入A股将成为常态。那么,资本市场的开放会对A股产生什么深远的影响呢?本文将从资本流入规模、股市走势、投资者结构、周转率和外资头寸结构等方面,深入分析台湾和韩国资本市场开放对股市的影响,并展望未来资本市场开放对A股市场的影响。第一,资本市场开放对我国台湾股市的影响。资本市场开放度的扩大与股票市场纳入摩根士丹利资本国际密切相关。我们选取中国台湾股市开始纳入摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)的时间来表征中国台湾股市开放的关键时间点,分析资本市场开放对股市走势、交易特征和投资者结构的影响。并总结了外资企业的偏好。1.1台湾资本市场在中国的开放过程:1983年以来,台湾资本市场分四个阶段逐步开放,2003年台湾证券市场全面开放。第一阶段(1983-1990年)是开放台湾投资信托公司,募集海外资金投资台湾股票市场;第二阶段(1991-1995年)是允许外国专业投资机构(QFII)直接投资台湾股票市场;第三阶段(1996-2002年)是允许一般外国投资者(GFII)直接投资台湾股票市场。Y在台湾股市;第四阶段(2003年)。2000年后,取消了合格投资者资格审查制度,股票市场对外国投资者完全开放。资本市场对外开放的扩大与摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)纳入股市密切相关,可以用来说明股市对外开放是否有明显改善。台湾于1996年9月并入摩根士丹利资本国际,2005年全面整合,历时九年。最初,包含因子在1996年为50%,2000年为65%和80%,2005年为100%。1.2外资流入中国台湾股市,台湾股票纳入摩根士丹利资本国际后,前10年外资流入台湾股市仍以净流入为主,但节奏放缓。金融市场的动荡将导致外资暂时外流。1996年9月摩根士丹利资本国际成立之初,受1997年亚洲金融危机影响,1997-98年外资流入趋势不明显。自1999年以来,外资流入连续九年持续。1986年至1995年,台湾权益性证券投资区间的年平均净流入量仅为6.6亿美元,1998年至2007年,台湾权益性证券投资区间的年平均净流入量为142亿美元,是前者的22倍。从那时起,外国资本的净流入仍占主导地位,但速度有所放缓。1.3台湾股市在中国的走势。在资本市场加速开放后,外资流入未必会导致牛市,但会显着改善国内外股市的联动性。1997-2003年,台湾股市暴跌五年多,跌幅最大,超过50%。资本市场开放后,台湾股市与全球股市的联动性显着改善。从1986年到1995年,台湾股票的月收益率与美国股票的相关性仅为18%。从1996年到2005年,相关系数增加到42%。1.4台湾股票市场在中国的投资者结构:(1)机构投资者和个人投资者在台湾股票市场的比例持续上升,而个人投资者的比例则显着下降。摩根士丹利资本国际对投资者结构的影响显着。台湾股市机构投资者比例由1995年(MSCI前一年)的8%上升到2016年的48%,个人投资者比例由同期的92%下降到52%。台湾股市机构投资者比例由1997年的42%上升到2008年的60%,个人投资者比例由同期的58%下降到40%。2008年以后,机构投资者和个人投资者的比例基本稳定在46人。(二)外资在台湾股市的比重显着上升。就交易比例而言,外资从1995年(包括摩根士丹利资本国际前一年)的1%增加到2008年的25%。从股市持股比例来看,外资从1997年的9%上升到2008年的26%,年均增长1.6个百分点。2008年以来,外国投资者持有股票市值的比例基本稳定在25%至30%左右。1.5台湾股市在中国的成交量。长期来看,我国台湾股市在摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)之后的成交量有所下降。台湾股市纳入摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)后的第二年,台湾股市的成交量几乎翻了一番,从1996年的213%增至1997年的411%,但随后在2017年逐渐降至68%。台湾股市的成交量下降和零售交易份额的逐步下降是一个硬币的两面。1.6外资在中国台湾股市的特点(1)行业特点。台湾的主导产业是电子和计算机产业。外资最多的产业集中在台湾的电子工业和计算机工业,包括半导体工业、其他电子工业、电子元件、计算机和外围工业。此外,金融业和塑料业的外资股也更多。(二)市场价值特征。一般来说,外资股票市场的价值区间分布与整个市场的价值区间分布基本相同。外商投资对资本化的大型股票有轻微偏好。53%的外国公司市值超过新台币2000亿元,略高于整个市场的51%。(3)净资产收益率特征。外国投资者更喜欢ROE较高的股票。在净资产收益率超过15%的公司中,51%的公司拥有市场资本,而在整个市场中,这一比例为37%。(4)流动性特征:台湾股市外资偏好流动性股票。外资股日均成交量超过20亿元,占市值的44%,市场份额仅为23%。(5)估值特点:我国台湾股市的境外中值估值比例最高,不偏好低估值。20-40个区间的外资私募股权市场价值最高,占56%,占整个市场的40%。外商投资的电子和计算机行业是典型的增长型股票。一般来说,成长型股票不追求低估值。2。资本市场自由化对韩国股市的影响2.1韩国资本市场自由化进程。自1981年以来,韩国逐步对外开放分为四个阶段。第一阶段为间接参与阶段(1981-1984年),允许外国投资者通过韩国信托基金和封闭式基金在中国进行间接投资;第二阶段为有限直接参与阶段(1985-1987年),允许外国投资者对国内证券和韩国公司进行有限直接投资。允许投资者在境外发行可转换公司债券;第三阶段允许外国投资者对境内证券进行有限直接投资。在进一步开放阶段(1988-1990),允许外国投资者在互惠基础上投资证券,允许国内公司在海外市场发行股票;第四阶段,允许外国证券在1991年后在韩国上市,允许国内投资者投资海外证券。美国资本市场对外开放的扩大与摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)融入股市密切相关,可以用来说明股市对外开放是否有明显改善。韩国于1992年首次并入摩根士丹利资本国际,并于1996年和1998年全面合并。1992年首次纳入时,纳入因子仅为20%,1996年增至50%,1998年增至100%。2.2外资流入韩国股市。摩根士丹利资本国际之后,外资流入韩国股市。金融市场动荡将导致外资暂时外流。在摩根士丹利资本国际并入韩国股市之前,净流入量较小且稳定,前十年(1982-1991年)的平均年净流入量仅为5.5亿美元;摩根士丹利资本国际成立后,外资的年净流入量几乎呈上升趋势,平均年净流入量为10.9亿美元。在摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)并入韩国股市之前,其年平均净流入量几乎是其20倍。金融市场动荡将导致外资暂时外流。1998年亚洲金融危机期间,外资净流入大幅减少,但危机后迅速恢复;2008年全球金融危机期间,外资净流出较大。2.3韩国股市走势。在资本市场加速开放后,外资流入未必会导致牛市,但会显着改善国内外股市的联动性。1994-2003年,韩国股市震荡8年多,跌幅最大,超过70%。资本市场开放后,韩国股票与全球股票市场的联动性明显改善。在1982-1991年,韩国和美国的股票回报率之间的相关性只有21%。自1998年以来,当100%的因素被完全包括在内时,相关性增加到53%(1998-2018年)。2.4韩国股票市场投资者结构(1)韩国股票市场机构投资者和个人投资者比例显着上升,个人投资者比例显着下降。从交易比例来看,韩国股市机构投资者的比例从1993年的28%上升到17年的47%,而个人投资者的比例则从同期的72%下降到48%。机构投资者比例由88年的37%上升到1997年的60%,此后一直保持在61%左右的高位,个人投资者比例由63%下降到同期的40%。(2)外资在韩国股市的比重显着提高。就交易比例而言,外国投资者从1993年(摩根士丹利资本国际成立一年后)的1%上升到2017年的32%,年均增长1.24个百分点。2008年以后,出现了一些波动,但仍呈上升趋势,2013年外商投资占比高达36%。在股市持股比例方面,外国投资者从1991年(包括摩根士丹利资本国际前一年)的2.5%上升到2005年的23%,年均增长1.4个百分点;2008年后略有下降,维持在16%左右的高位。2.5摩根士丹利资本国际(MSCI)纳入韩国股市后,韩国股市的成交量首次上升,自2000年以来呈中心趋势下降。1991年(包括摩根士丹利资本国际前一年),韩国股市的成交量仅为81%。然后迅速上升到100%以上,波动性上升,在1999年达到了353%的高点。2000年以后,股票市场的成交量从2002年的252%下降到2007年的158%,2012年下降到107%,2017年下降到87%。2.6外资在韩国股票市场的特点(1)行业特点。外资在韩国股票市场更喜欢技术硬件、商业银行、半导体、无线电信和汽车。外资股市值最高的五个行业是科技硬件、商业银行、半导体产品和设备、无线电和电信服务以及汽车。其中,科技硬件的股票市值最高,外资在科技硬件行业的比重达到55%。(二)市场价值特征。市值超过1000亿韩元的公司占86%,高于全市78%。(3)净资产收益率特征。韩国股市的外国投资者更喜欢高股本回报率的股票。净资产收益率在15%以上的股份,外资持股比例为42%。市场占有率为30%。外国投资者更喜欢ROE高的股票。(4)流动性特征:韩国股市外资偏好高流动性股票。在外资股中,去年日均成交量的市值比例最高,从100亿韩元到200亿韩元不等。过去一年,外资股日均成交额超过100亿韩元的市值占99%,远高于全市81%。(5)估值特点:韩国股市的外国投资者偏好低估值。外资持股的估值分布与整个市场基本相同。外国投资者对估值较低的股票有轻微偏好。其中,市盈率小于20的股票市值占84%,高于整个市场的77%。三。资本市场自由化对A股的影响及启示。3.1外资进入A股的速度在过去16年加快,外资持股比例继续上升。自2014年11月上海、深圳、香港开放以来,北方资金不断流入,2016以来北方资本流入加快,2018年度净流入约3000亿元,比上年同期增长50%左右。2015年12月,我国A股外资持股约占1.06%,随后逐步增加,2018年9月达到2.4%。预计未来资本流入将继续向北加速,外资股市价值将继续进一步上升。预计19年收入和摩根士丹利资本国际纳入因素的改善将吸引外资,加速A股流入。北升2018年资本流入约3000亿元。根据我们的计算,假设活跃资金按比例分配,预计19年的财富将为A股带来3500亿元的资本流动,为MSCI因子带来3900亿元的资本流动。考虑到活跃资金可能配置不足,我们预计在富时和摩根士丹利资本国际的推动下,19年来通过陆港沟通机制吸引外资入股的规模可能达到4000-5000亿元。今年1月12日,在中国资本市场论坛上,中国证券监督管理委员会副主席方兴海表示,今年外资流入A股有望达到6000亿元。预计QFII的扩张将进一步吸引外资,加速A股的流入。2019年1月14日,国家外汇管理局在官方网站上宣布,为满足境外投资者扩大资本市场投资的需要,经国务院批准,合格投资者投资总额由1500亿美元增加到3000亿美元。这一扩张将导致更多的外资进入A股市场。3.2 A股投资者结构个人投资者在A股中的比例仍然较高。2017年,个人投资者占交易量的82%,交易量明显增加。2017年,个人投资者持有股票市值的21%,高于专业机构投资者的16%。预计未来个人投资者交易和持有股票市值的比例将进一步下降,机构投资者的比例将进一步上升。根据台湾、韩国的经验和中国公民的特点,预计未来A股零售交易的比例不会特别低,这可能会导致散户投资者和机构占总数的一半。3.3 A股北上的资本持有特点(1)行业特点。对于消费业,尤其是食品和饮料业,北上A股的资本控股最受青睐。北盛资本拥有股票市值最高的五大产业:食品饮料、家电、非银金融、银行、医疗和生物。(2)市值特征:A股优先选择市值超过1000亿元的大型资本化股票。市值超过1000亿元的公司占62%,高于整个市场的47%。(3)净资产收益率特征:A股偏好北方的高净资产收益率股票。北方地区资本集中度分布的净资产收益率区间为25%-35%,而整个市场股票市值集中度分布的净资产收益率区间为10%-15%。北方资本持有股本回报率在10%以上的股票市值的88%,而整个市场为66%。(4)流动性特征:A股优先选择高流动性股票。北升去年持有的资本日均成交额超过5亿元,约占市值的55%,而北升的资本日均成交额仅占39%。(5)估值特点:A股资本向北无明显的低估值偏好。北升所持资本的估值分布与整个市场基本相同。北升40岁以下的资本控股私募股权(TTM)市值约占90%,而整个市场市值占89%。3.4从台湾和韩国的经验来看,资本市场自由化对A股的影响和启示。加入摩根士丹利资本国际后,外资长期流入。两个市场的投资者结构也发生了共同的变化,即机构投资者持续改善,外资比例大幅上升。在股票市场的冲击下,资本市场的开放不一定会导致牛市,而是使本地股票市场与国外股票市场的联系更加紧密;短期内,换手率上升,长期内趋于下降。预计未来,外资进入A股市场的时间也将是长期的,外资比例将增加,机构投资者比例将增加,与境外股市的联动性将增强。在外商投资偏好方面,台湾外商投资偏好电子、计算机等本地优质产业,韩国外商投资偏好银行、电信等产业。在A股中,外资更青睐食品和饮料、家用电器、制药和生物等消费行业。目前,这一趋势将继续。此外,外资在台湾、韩国和资本在北方的A股市场价值大、净资产收益率高、流动性强的优先股公司。A股目前的地位特征与台湾、韩国的高度一致。我们预计外资对A股的偏好将在未来继续,即对资本化程度较高的股票、股本回报率较高的股票和流动性较高的股票的偏好。然而,就估值而言,外国投资并不一定喜欢绝对较低的估值。风险提示:1。资本市场对外开放的进程低于预期;(2)从泸沽东到北方的资本流入与预期不符;(3)外资对A股的影响与预期不符。新浪声明:新浪发布这篇文章是为了传递更多的信息,并不意味着它同意自己的观点或确认自己的描述。本条内容仅供参考,不构成投资建议。投资者自行承担风险。免责声明:媒体合成的内容来自媒体,版权归原作者所有。请联系原作者并获得复制许可。文章的观点只代表作者本人,而不是新浪的立场。如果内容涉及投资建议,仅供参考,不作为投资依据。投资是有风险的,所以进入市场时要谨慎。责任编辑:常福强

guang fa zhan lue yi tai wan he han guo wei li, cong A gu de bian hua zi ben zi you hua dui A gu de ying xiang deng fang mian jin xing fen xi. lai yuan: guang fa zhan lue yan jiu. bao gao zhai yao. 1 yue 14 ri, QFII zheng shi gong gao zeng zhi 3000 yi mei yuan, er zui jin di zheng jian hui fu zhu xi SaiD jin nian wai zi liu ru A gu de jin e yu ji jiang da dao 6000 yi mei yuan. zi ben shi chang kai fang bu fa zheng zai jia kuai. dui A gu de shen yuan ying xiang shi shen me? wo men jiang xiang tai wan he han guo xue xi, qi dai zi ben zi you hua dui A gu de ying xiang. zi ben shi chang zi you hua dui wo guo tai wan gu shi de ying xiang: 1983 nian zhi 2003 nian, tai wan zi ben shi chang zhu bu kai fang, fen si ge jie duan, 1996 nian kai shi na ru mo gen shi dan li zi ben guo ji. yi mo gen shi dan li zi ben guo ji MSCI wei jie dian, zi ben zi you hua de ying xiang ru xia: zai zi ben liu ru fang mian, tai wan gu shi na ru mo gen shi dan li zi ben guo ji MSCI hou de qian 10 nian, guo nei wai zi ben liu ru jia su, sui hou jie zou zhu jian fang huan, dan jing liu ru reng zhan zhu dao di wei. zai ci qi jian, jin rong shi chang dong dang jiang dao zhi wai zi zan shi liu chu shi chang zou shi, wai zi liu ru bu yi ding hui dao zhi niu shi, dan hui xian zhu gai shan guo nei wai gu shi de lian dong xing tou zi zhe jie gou ji gou tou zi zhe bi li he wai zi bi li. mo gen shi dan li zi ben guo ji MSCI hou ji xu shang sheng cheng jiao liang lv, cong chang qi lai kan, cheng jiao liang lv de zhong xin yi jing xia jiang. dang qian wai shang tou zi de di wei te zheng: zai chan ye shang, wai shang tou zi pian hao tai wan dian zi dian nao deng zhu dao chan ye zai shi chang jia zhi shang, wai shang tou zi pian hao zi ben hua gui mo jiao da de gu piao zai li run shang, wai shang tou zi pian hao jing zi chan shou yi lv jiao gao de gu piao zai liu dong xing shang, wai shang tou zi pian hao gao zhou zhuan lv. gu piao zai gu zhi fang mian, wai zi bu xi huan di gu zhi. zi ben shi chang zi you hua dui han guo gu shi de ying xiang. 1981 nian zhi 1991 nian, han guo zi ben shi chang zhu bu kai fang, fen si bu jin xing, 1992 nian yi lai, han guo gu shi yi na ru mo gen shi dan li zi ben guo ji. zi ben zi you hua dui han guo de ying xiang yu tai wan ji ben xiang tong, zai zi ben liu ru fang mian, bao kuo mo gen shi dan li zi ben guo ji MSCI zhi hou de wai zi chi xu liu ru zai shi chang qu shi fang mian, guo nei wai gu shi de lian dong xing ming xian gai shan zai tou zi zhe jie gou fang mian, ji gou bi li S wai zi da fu zeng jia, cong wai zi tou cun te zheng kan, wai zi pian hao han guo zhu dao chan ye, pian hao zi ben hua gui mo da gu ben hui bao lv gao liu dong xing qiang de gu piao. zi ben shi chang zi you hua dui A gu de ying xiang ji tai wan han guo de jing yan. zi 2014 nian 11 yue shang hai shen zhen xiang gang zheng quan jiao yi suo kai pan yi lai, bei fang zi jin bu duan liu ru, 2015 hou wai shang du zi gu piao shi zhi bi li zhu bu shang sheng. shou mo gen shi dan li zi ben guo ji MSCI yin zi zeng jia he 19 nian cai fu zeng jia de tui dong, yu ji bei fang zi ben liu ru gui mo jiang da dao 40005000 yi yuan. zai ke yu jian de wei lai ji nian shen zhi 10 nian nei, wai zi bu duan liu ru A gu jiang cheng wei chang tai. wai zi bu duan liu ru A gu bing bu yi ding yi wei zhe niu shi, dan wei lai guo nei wai gu shi de lian dong jiang jin yi bu gai shan, wai zi dui A gu de ying xiang jiang yue lai yue da. qu nian 12 yue, wo men zai wai shang tou zi lu yan de bian hua yu bian hua yin xiang zhong xuan ze le wai guo tou zi zhe dui jing wai lu yan A gu de re dian wen ti he yi jian. 17 nian lai, shang hai zheng quan jiao yi suo ling shou A gu jiao yi de bi li yi chao guo 80, ming xian gao yu ji gou. gen ju tai wan han guo de jing yan he zhong guo gong min de te dian, yu ji wei lai ling shou A gu jiao yi de bi li jiang xia jiang, dan bu hui te bie di, ke neng biao ming ling shou tou zi zhe he ji gou zhan zong shu de yi ban. mu qian, wai zi chi gu bi li bu dao 3. yu ji zhe yi qu shi jiang zai wei lai shi nian nei zeng jia. cong tou cun te zheng lai kan, yu ji wai shang tou zi reng pian hao xiao fei lei gu, pian hao zi ben hua cheng du gao jing zi chan shou yi lv gao liu dong xing qiang de gu piao, dan dui di gu zhi mei you ming xian pian hao. feng xian ti shi: zi ben shi chang hua jin cheng di yu yu qi, wai zi liu ru gui mo he ying xiang yu yu qi bu fu. zi 2014 nian 11 yue shang hai shen zhen xiang gang kai bu yi lai, bei fang zi jin bu duan liu ru. 16 nian 17 nian he 18 nian lai, bei fang zi ben liu ru fen bie da dao 600 yi yuan 2000 yi yuan he 3000 yi yuan, you ming xian jia kuai liu ru de ji xiang. sui zhe fu shi zhi shu A gu de ti sheng he mo gen shi dan li zi ben guo ji yin su de gai shan, yu ji 19 nian nei tong guo lu gang gou tong ji zhi jia kuai wai zi liu ru. wo men gu ji, 19 nian lai, bei fang zi ben jing liu ru jiang da dao 40005000 yi yuan. jin nian 1 yue 12 ri, zai zhong guo zi ben shi chang lun tan shang, zhong guo zheng quan jian du guan li wei yuan hui fu zhu xi fang xing hai biao shi, jin nian wai zi liu ru A gu you wang da dao 6000 yi yuan. jin nian 1 yue 14 ri, guo jia wai hui guan li ju he ge tou zi zhe zong pei e you 1500 yi mei yuan zeng jia dao 3000 yi mei yuan. ge zhong ji xiang biao ming, zhong guo zi ben shi chang kai fang bu fa zheng zai jia kuai. zai ke yu jian de wei lai ji nian shen zhi 10 nian nei, wai zi bu duan liu ru A gu jiang cheng wei chang tai. na me, zi ben shi chang de kai fang hui dui A gu chan sheng shen me shen yuan de ying xiang ne? ben wen jiang cong zi ben liu ru gui mo gu shi zou shi tou zi zhe jie gou zhou zhuan lv he wai zi tou cun jie gou deng fang mian, shen ru fen xi tai wan he han guo zi ben shi chang kai fang dui gu shi de ying xiang, bing zhan wang wei lai zi ben shi chang kai fang dui A gu shi chang de ying xiang. di yi, zi ben shi chang kai fang dui wo guo tai wan gu shi de ying xiang. zi ben shi chang kai fang du de kuo da yu gu piao shi chang na ru mo gen shi dan li zi ben guo ji mi qie xiang guan. wo men xuan qu zhong guo tai wan gu shi kai shi na ru mo gen shi dan li zi ben guo ji MSCI de shi jian lai biao zheng zhong guo tai wan gu shi kai fang de guan jian shi jian dian, fen xi zi ben shi chang kai fang dui gu shi zou shi jiao yi te zheng he tou zi zhe jie gou de ying xiang. bing zong jie le wai zi qi ye de pian hao. 1. 1 tai wan zi ben shi chang zai zhong guo de kai fang guo cheng: 1983 nian yi lai, tai wan zi ben shi chang fen si ge jie duan zhu bu kai fang, 2003 nian tai wan zheng quan shi chang quan mian kai fang. di yi jie duan 19831990 nian shi kai fang tai wan tou zi xin tuo gong si, mu ji hai wai zi jin tou zi tai wan gu piao shi chang di er jie duan 19911995 nian shi yun xu wai guo zhuan ye tou zi ji gou QFII zhi jie tou zi tai wan gu piao shi chang di san jie duan 19962002 nian shi yun xu yi ban wai guo tou zi zhe GFII zhi jie tou zi tai wan gu piao shi chang. Y zai tai wan gu shi di si jie duan 2003 nian. 2000 nian hou, qu xiao le he ge tou zi zhe zi ge shen zha zhi du, gu piao shi chang dui wai guo tou zi zhe wan quan kai fang. zi ben shi chang dui wai kai fang de kuo da yu mo gen shi dan li zi ben guo ji MSCI na ru gu shi mi qie xiang guan, ke yi yong lai shuo ming gu shi dui wai kai fang shi fou you ming xian gai shan. tai wan yu 1996 nian 9 yue bing ru mo gen shi dan li zi ben guo ji, 2005 nian quan mian zheng he, li shi jiu nian. zui chu, bao han yin zi zai 1996 nian wei 50, 2000 nian wei 65 he 80, 2005 nian wei 100. 1. 2 wai zi liu ru zhong guo tai wan gu shi, tai wan gu piao na ru mo gen shi dan li zi ben guo ji hou, qian 10 nian wai zi liu ru tai wan gu shi reng yi jing liu ru wei zhu, dan jie zou fang huan. jin rong shi chang de dong dang jiang dao zhi wai zi zan shi wai liu. 1996 nian 9 yue mo gen shi dan li zi ben guo ji cheng li zhi chu, shou 1997 nian ya zhou jin rong wei ji ying xiang, 199798 nian wai zi liu ru qu shi bu ming xian. zi 1999 nian yi lai, wai zi liu ru lian xu jiu nian chi xu. 1986 nian zhi 1995 nian, tai wan quan yi xing zheng quan tou zi qu jian de nian ping jun jing liu ru liang jin wei 6. 6 yi mei yuan, 1998 nian zhi 2007 nian, tai wan quan yi xing zheng quan tou zi qu jian de nian ping jun jing liu ru liang wei 142 yi mei yuan, shi qian zhe de 22 bei. cong na shi qi, wai guo zi ben de jing liu ru reng zhan zhu dao di wei, dan su du you suo fang huan. 1. 3 tai wan gu shi zai zhong guo de zou shi. zai zi ben shi chang jia su kai fang hou, wai zi liu ru wei bi hui dao zhi niu shi, dan hui xian zhu gai shan guo nei wai gu shi de lian dong xing. 19972003 nian, tai wan gu shi bao die wu nian duo, die fu zui da, chao guo 50. zi ben shi chang kai fang hou, tai wan gu shi yu quan qiu gu shi de lian dong xing xian zhu gai shan. cong 1986 nian dao 1995 nian, tai wan gu piao de yue shou yi lv yu mei guo gu piao de xiang guan xing jin wei 18. cong 1996 nian dao 2005 nian, xiang guan xi shu zeng jia dao 42. 1. 4 tai wan gu piao shi chang zai zhong guo de tou zi zhe jie gou: 1 ji gou tou zi zhe he ge ren tou zi zhe zai tai wan gu piao shi chang de bi li chi xu shang sheng, er ge ren tou zi zhe de bi li ze xian zhu xia jiang. mo gen shi dan li zi ben guo ji dui tou zi zhe jie gou de ying xiang xian zhu. tai wan gu shi ji gou tou zi zhe bi li you 1995 nian MSCI qian yi nian de 8 shang sheng dao 2016 nian de 48, ge ren tou zi zhe bi li you tong qi de 92 xia jiang dao 52. tai wan gu shi ji gou tou zi zhe bi li you 1997 nian de 42 shang sheng dao 2008 nian de 60, ge ren tou zi zhe bi li you tong qi de 58 xia jiang dao 40. 2008 nian yi hou, ji gou tou zi zhe he ge ren tou zi zhe de bi li ji ben wen ding zai 46 ren. er wai zi zai tai wan gu shi de bi zhong xian zhu shang sheng. jiu jiao yi bi li er yan, wai zi cong 1995 nian bao kuo mo gen shi dan li zi ben guo ji qian yi nian de 1 zeng jia dao 2008 nian de 25. cong gu shi chi gu bi li lai kan, wai zi cong 1997 nian de 9 shang sheng dao 2008 nian de 26, nian jun zeng zhang 1. 6 ge bai fen dian. 2008 nian yi lai, wai guo tou zi zhe chi you gu piao shi zhi de bi li ji ben wen ding zai 25 zhi 30 zuo you. 1. 5 tai wan gu shi zai zhong guo de cheng jiao liang. chang qi lai kan, wo guo tai wan gu shi zai mo gen shi dan li zi ben guo ji MSCI zhi hou de cheng jiao liang you suo xia jiang. tai wan gu shi na ru mo gen shi dan li zi ben guo ji MSCI hou de di er nian, tai wan gu shi de cheng jiao liang ji hu fan le yi fan, cong 1996 nian de 213 zeng zhi 1997 nian de 411, dan sui hou zai 2017 nian zhu jian jiang zhi 68. tai wan gu shi de cheng jiao liang xia jiang he ling shou jiao yi fen e de zhu bu xia jiang shi yi ge ying bi de liang mian. 1. 6 wai zi zai zhong guo tai wan gu shi de te dian 1 hang ye te dian. tai wan de zhu dao chan ye shi dian zi he ji suan ji chan ye. wai zi zui duo de chan ye ji zhong zai tai wan de dian zi gong ye he ji suan ji gong ye, bao kuo ban dao ti gong ye qi ta dian zi gong ye dian zi yuan jian ji suan ji he wai wei gong ye. ci wai, jin rong ye he su liao ye de wai zi gu ye geng duo. er shi chang jia zhi te zheng. yi ban lai shuo, wai zi gu piao shi chang de jia zhi qu jian fen bu yu zheng ge shi chang de jia zhi qu jian fen bu ji ben xiang tong. wai shang tou zi dui zi ben hua de da xing gu piao you qing wei pian hao. 53 de wai guo gong si shi zhi chao guo xin tai bi 2000 yi yuan, lue gao yu zheng ge shi chang de 51. 3 jing zi chan shou yi lv te zheng. wai guo tou zi zhe geng xi huan ROE jiao gao de gu piao. zai jing zi chan shou yi lv chao guo 15 de gong si zhong, 51 de gong si yong you shi chang zi ben, er zai zheng ge shi chang zhong, zhe yi bi li wei 37. 4 liu dong xing te zheng: tai wan gu shi wai zi pian hao liu dong xing gu piao. wai zi gu ri jun cheng jiao liang chao guo 20 yi yuan, zhan shi zhi de 44, shi chang fen e jin wei 23. 5 gu zhi te dian: wo guo tai wan gu shi de jing wai zhong zhi gu zhi bi li zui gao, bu pian hao di gu zhi. 2040 ge qu jian de wai zi si mu gu quan shi chang jia zhi zui gao, zhan 56, zhan zheng ge shi chang de 40. wai shang tou zi de dian zi he ji suan ji hang ye shi dian xing de zeng zhang xing gu piao. yi ban lai shuo, cheng zhang xing gu piao bu zhui qiu di gu zhi. 2. zi ben shi chang zi you hua dui han guo gu shi de ying xiang 2. 1 han guo zi ben shi chang zi you hua jin cheng. zi 1981 nian yi lai, han guo zhu bu dui wai kai fang fen wei si ge jie duan. di yi jie duan wei jian jie can yu jie duan 19811984 nian, yun xu wai guo tou zi zhe tong guo han guo xin tuo ji jin he feng bi shi ji jin zai zhong guo jin hang jian jie tou zi di er jie duan wei you xian zhi jie can yu jie duan 19851987 nian, yun xu wai guo tou zi zhe dui guo nei zheng quan he han guo gong si jin xing you xian zhi jie tou zi. yun xu tou zi zhe zai jing wai fa xing ke zhuan huan gong si zhai quan di san jie duan yun xu wai guo tou zi zhe dui jing nei zheng quan jin xing you xian zhi jie tou zi. zai jin yi bu kai fang jie duan 19881990, yun xu wai guo tou zi zhe zai hu hui ji chu shang tou zi zheng quan, yun xu guo nei gong si zai hai wai shi chang fa xing gu piao di si jie duan, yun xu wai guo zheng quan zai 1991 nian hou zai han guo shang shi, yun xu guo nei tou zi zhe tou zi hai wai zheng quan. mei guo zi ben shi chang dui wai kai fang de kuo da yu mo gen shi dan li zi ben guo ji MSCI rong ru gu shi mi qie xiang guan, ke yi yong lai shuo ming gu shi dui wai kai fang shi fou you ming xian gai shan. han guo yu 1992 nian shou ci bing ru mo gen shi dan li zi ben guo ji, bing yu 1996 nian he 1998 nian quan mian he bing. 1992 nian shou ci na ru shi, na ru yin zi jin wei 20, 1996 nian zeng zhi 50, 1998 nian zeng zhi 100. 2. 2 wai zi liu ru han guo gu shi. mo gen shi dan li zi ben guo ji zhi hou, wai zi liu ru han guo gu shi. jin rong shi chang dong dang jiang dao zhi wai zi zan shi wai liu. zai mo gen shi dan li zi ben guo ji bing ru han guo gu shi zhi qian, jing liu ru liang jiao xiao qie wen ding, qian shi nian 19821991 nian de ping jun nian jing liu ru liang jin wei 5. 5 yi mei yuan mo gen shi dan li zi ben guo ji cheng li hou, wai zi de nian jing liu ru liang ji hu cheng shang sheng qu shi, ping jun nian jing liu ru liang wei 10. 9 yi mei yuan. zai mo gen shi dan li zi ben guo ji MSCI bing ru han guo gu shi zhi qian, qi nian ping jun jing liu ru liang ji hu shi qi 20 bei. jin rong shi chang dong dang jiang dao zhi wai zi zan shi wai liu. 1998 nian ya zhou jin rong wei ji qi jian, wai zi jing liu ru da fu jian shao, dan wei ji hou xun su hui fu 2008 nian quan qiu jin rong wei ji qi jian, wai zi jing liu chu jiao da. 2. 3 han guo gu shi zou shi. zai zi ben shi chang jia su kai fang hou, wai zi liu ru wei bi hui dao zhi niu shi, dan hui xian zhu gai shan guo nei wai gu shi de lian dong xing. 19942003 nian, han guo gu shi zhen dang 8 nian duo, die fu zui da, chao guo 70. zi ben shi chang kai fang hou, han guo gu piao yu quan qiu gu piao shi chang de lian dong xing ming xian gai shan. zai 19821991 nian, han guo he mei guo de gu piao hui bao lv zhi jian de xiang guan xing zhi you 21. zi 1998 nian yi lai, dang 100 de yin su bei wan quan bao kuo zai nei shi, xiang guan xing zeng jia dao 53 19982018 nian. 2. 4 han guo gu piao shi chang tou zi zhe jie gou 1 han guo gu piao shi chang ji gou tou zi zhe he ge ren tou zi zhe bi li xian zhu shang sheng, ge ren tou zi zhe bi li xian zhu xia jiang. cong jiao yi bi li lai kan, han guo gu shi ji gou tou zi zhe de bi li cong 1993 nian de 28 shang sheng dao 17 nian de 47, er ge ren tou zi zhe de bi li ze cong tong qi de 72 xia jiang dao 48. ji gou tou zi zhe bi li you 88 nian de 37 shang sheng dao 1997 nian de 60, ci hou yi zhi bao chi zai 61 zuo you de gao wei, ge ren tou zi zhe bi li you 63 xia jiang dao tong qi de 40. 2 wai zi zai han guo gu shi de bi zhong xian zhu ti gao. jiu jiao yi bi li er yan, wai guo tou zi zhe cong 1993 nian mo gen shi dan li zi ben guo ji cheng li yi nian hou de 1 shang sheng dao 2017 nian de 32, nian jun zeng zhang 1. 24 ge bai fen dian. 2008 nian yi hou, chu xian le yi xie bo dong, dan reng cheng shang sheng qu shi, 2013 nian wai shang tou zi zhan bi gao da 36. zai gu shi chi gu bi li fang mian, wai guo tou zi zhe cong 1991 nian bao kuo mo gen shi dan li zi ben guo ji qian yi nian de 2. 5 shang sheng dao 2005 nian de 23, nian jun zeng zhang 1. 4 ge bai fen dian 2008 nian hou lue you xia jiang, wei chi zai 16 zuo you de gao wei. 2. 5 mo gen shi dan li zi ben guo ji MSCI na ru han guo gu shi hou, han guo gu shi de cheng jiao liang shou ci shang sheng, zi 2000 nian yi lai cheng zhong xin qu shi xia jiang. 1991 nian bao kuo mo gen shi dan li zi ben guo ji qian yi nian, han guo gu shi de cheng jiao liang jin wei 81. ran hou xun su shang sheng dao 100 yi shang, bo dong xing shang sheng, zai 1999 nian da dao le 353 de gao dian. 2000 nian yi hou, gu piao shi chang de cheng jiao liang cong 2002 nian de 252 xia jiang dao 2007 nian de 158, 2012 nian xia jiang dao 107, 2017 nian xia jiang dao 87. 2. 6 wai zi zai han guo gu piao shi chang de te dian 1 hang ye te dian. wai zi zai han guo gu piao shi chang geng xi huan ji shu ying jian shang ye yin hang ban dao ti wu xian dian xin he qi che. wai zi gu shi zhi zui gao de wu ge hang ye shi ke ji ying jian shang ye yin hang ban dao ti chan pin he she bei wu xian dian he dian xin fu wu yi ji qi che. qi zhong, ke ji ying jian de gu piao shi zhi zui gao, wai zi zai ke ji ying jian hang ye de bi zhong da dao 55. er shi chang jia zhi te zheng. shi zhi chao guo 1000 yi han yuan de gong si zhan 86, gao yu quan shi 78. 3 jing zi chan shou yi lv te zheng. han guo gu shi de wai guo tou zi zhe geng xi huan gao gu ben hui bao lv de gu piao. jing zi chan shou yi lv zai 15 yi shang de gu fen, wai zi chi gu bi li wei 42. shi chang zhan you lv wei 30. wai guo tou zi zhe geng xi huan ROE gao de gu piao. 4 liu dong xing te zheng: han guo gu shi wai zi pian hao gao liu dong xing gu piao. zai wai zi gu zhong, qu nian ri jun cheng jiao liang de shi zhi bi li zui gao, cong 100 yi han yuan dao 200 yi han yuan bu deng. guo qu yi nian, wai zi gu ri jun cheng jiao e chao guo 100 yi han yuan de shi zhi zhan 99, yuan gao yu quan shi 81. 5 gu zhi te dian: han guo gu shi de wai guo tou zi zhe pian hao di gu zhi. wai zi chi gu de gu zhi fen bu yu zheng ge shi chang ji ben xiang tong. wai guo tou zi zhe dui gu zhi jiao di de gu piao you qing wei pian hao. qi zhong, shi ying lv xiao yu 20 de gu piao shi zhi zhan 84, gao yu zheng ge shi chang de 77. san. zi ben shi chang zi you hua dui A gu de ying xiang ji qi shi. 3. 1 wai zi jin ru A gu de su du zai guo qu 16 nian jia kuai, wai zi chi gu bi li ji xu shang sheng. zi 2014 nian 11 yue shang hai shen zhen xiang gang kai fang yi lai, bei fang zi jin bu duan liu ru, 2016 yi lai bei fang zi ben liu ru jia kuai, 2018 nian du jing liu ru yue 3000 yi yuan, bi shang nian tong qi zeng zhang 50 zuo you. 2015 nian 12 yue, wo guo A gu wai zi chi gu yue zhan 1. 06, sui hou zhu bu zeng jia, 2018 nian 9 yue da dao 2. 4. yu ji wei lai zi ben liu ru jiang ji xu xiang bei jia su, wai zi gu shi jia zhi jiang ji xu jin yi bu shang sheng. yu ji 19 nian shou ru he mo gen shi dan li zi ben guo ji na ru yin su de gai shan jiang xi yin wai zi, jia su A gu liu ru. bei sheng 2018 nian zi ben liu ru yue 3000 yi yuan. gen ju wo men de ji suan, jia she huo yue zi jin an bi li fen pei, yu ji 19 nian de cai fu jiang wei A gu dai lai 3500 yi yuan de zi ben liu dong, wei MSCI yin zi dai lai 3900 yi yuan de zi ben liu dong. kao lv dao huo yue zi jin ke neng pei zhi bu zu, wo men yu ji zai fu shi he mo gen shi dan li zi ben guo ji de tui dong xia, 19 nian lai tong guo lu gang gou tong ji zhi xi yin wai zi ru gu de gui mo ke neng da dao 40005000 yi yuan. jin nian 1 yue 12 ri, zai zhong guo zi ben shi chang lun tan shang, zhong guo zheng quan jian du guan li wei yuan hui fu zhu xi fang xing hai biao shi, jin nian wai zi liu ru A gu you wang da dao 6000 yi yuan. yu ji QFII de kuo zhang jiang jin yi bu xi yin wai zi, jia su A gu de liu ru. 2019 nian 1 yue 14 ri, guo jia wai hui guan li ju zai guan fang wang zhan shang xuan bu, wei man zu jing wai tou zi zhe kuo da zi ben shi chang tou zi de xu yao, jing guo wu yuan pi zhun, he ge tou zi zhe tou zi zong e you 1500 yi mei yuan zeng jia dao 3000 yi mei yuan. zhe yi kuo zhang jiang dao zhi geng duo de wai zi jin ru A gu shi chang. 3. 2 A gu tou zi zhe jie gou ge ren tou zi zhe zai A gu zhong de bi li reng ran jiao gao. 2017 nian, ge ren tou zi zhe zhan jiao yi liang de 82, jiao yi liang ming xian zeng jia. 2017 nian, ge ren tou zi zhe chi you gu piao shi zhi de 21, gao yu zhuan ye ji gou tou zi zhe de 16. yu ji wei lai ge ren tou zi zhe jiao yi he chi you gu piao shi zhi de bi li jiang jin yi bu xia jiang, ji gou tou zi zhe de bi li jiang jin yi bu shang sheng. gen ju tai wan han guo de jing yan he zhong guo gong min de te dian, yu ji wei lai A gu ling shou jiao yi de bi li bu hui te bie di, zhe ke neng hui dao zhi san hu tou zi zhe he ji gou zhan zong shu de yi ban. 3. 3 A gu bei shang de zi ben chi you te dian 1 hang ye te dian. dui yu xiao fei ye, you qi shi shi pin he yin liao ye, bei shang A gu de zi ben kong gu zui shou qing lai. bei sheng zi ben yong you gu piao shi zhi zui gao de wu da chan ye: shi pin yin liao jia dian fei yin jin rong yin hang yi liao he sheng wu. 2 shi zhi te zheng: A gu you xian xuan ze shi zhi chao guo 1000 yi yuan de da xing zi ben hua gu piao. shi zhi chao guo 1000 yi yuan de gong si zhan 62, gao yu zheng ge shi chang de 47. 3 jing zi chan shou yi lv te zheng: A gu pian hao bei fang de gao jing zi chan shou yi lv gu piao. bei fang di qu zi ben ji zhong du fen bu de jing zi chan shou yi lv qu jian wei 25 35, er zheng ge shi chang gu piao shi zhi ji zhong du fen bu de jing zi chan shou yi lv qu jian wei 10 15. bei fang zi ben chi you gu ben hui bao lv zai 10 yi shang de gu piao shi zhi de 88, er zheng ge shi chang wei 66. 4 liu dong xing te zheng: A gu you xian xuan ze gao liu dong xing gu piao. bei sheng qu nian chi you de zi ben ri jun cheng jiao e chao guo 5 yi yuan, yue zhan shi zhi de 55, er bei sheng de zi ben ri jun cheng jiao e jin zhan 39. 5 gu zhi te dian: A gu zi ben xiang bei wu ming xian de di gu zhi pian hao. bei sheng suo chi zi ben de gu zhi fen bu yu zheng ge shi chang ji ben xiang tong. bei sheng 40 sui yi xia de zi ben kong gu si mu gu quan TTM shi zhi yue zhan 90, er zheng ge shi chang shi zhi zhan 89. 3. 4 cong tai wan he han guo de jing yan lai kan, zi ben shi chang zi you hua dui A gu de ying xiang he qi shi. jia ru mo gen shi dan li zi ben guo ji hou, wai zi chang qi liu ru. liang ge shi chang de tou zi zhe jie gou ye fa sheng le gong tong de bian hua, ji ji gou tou zi zhe chi xu gai shan, wai zi bi li da fu shang sheng. zai gu piao shi chang de chong ji xia, zi ben shi chang de kai fang bu yi ding hui dao zhi niu shi, er shi shi ben di gu piao shi chang yu guo wai gu piao shi chang de lian xi geng jia jin mi duan qi nei, huan shou lv shang sheng, chang qi nei qu yu xia jiang. yu ji wei lai, wai zi jin ru A gu shi chang de shi jian ye jiang shi chang qi de, wai zi bi li jiang zeng jia, ji gou tou zi zhe bi li jiang zeng jia, yu jing wai gu shi de lian dong xing jiang zeng qiang. zai wai shang tou zi pian hao fang mian, tai wan wai shang tou zi pian hao dian zi ji suan ji deng ben di you zhi chan ye, han guo wai shang tou zi pian hao yin hang dian xin deng chan ye. zai A gu zhong, wai zi geng qing lai shi pin he yin liao jia yong dian qi zhi yao he sheng wu deng xiao fei hang ye. mu qian, zhe yi qu shi jiang ji xu. ci wai, wai zi zai tai wan han guo he zi ben zai bei fang de A gu shi chang jia zhi da jing zi chan shou yi lv gao liu dong xing qiang de you xian gu gong si. A gu mu qian de di wei te zheng yu tai wan han guo de gao du yi zhi. wo men yu ji wai zi dui A gu de pian hao jiang zai wei lai ji xu, ji dui zi ben hua cheng du jiao gao de gu piao gu ben hui bao lv jiao gao de gu piao he liu dong xing jiao gao de gu piao de pian hao. ran er, jiu gu zhi er yan, wai guo tou zi bing bu yi ding xi huan jue dui jiao di de gu zhi. feng xian ti shi: 1. zi ben shi chang dui wai kai fang de jin cheng di yu yu qi 2 cong lu gu dong dao bei fang de zi ben liu ru yu yu qi bu fu 3 wai zi dui A gu de ying xiang yu yu qi bu fu. xin lang sheng ming: xin lang fa bu zhe pian wen zhang shi wei le chuan di geng duo de xin xi, bing bu yi wei zhe ta tong yi zi ji de guan dian huo que ren zi ji de miao shu. ben tiao nei rong jin gong can kao, bu gou cheng tou zi jian yi. tou zi zhe zi xing cheng dan feng xian. mian ze sheng ming: mei ti he cheng de nei rong lai zi mei ti, ban quan gui yuan zuo zhe suo you. qing lian xi yuan zuo zhe bing huo de fu zhi xu ke. wen zhang de guan dian zhi dai biao zuo zhe ben ren, er bu shi xin lang de li chang. ru guo nei rong she ji tou zi jian yi, jin gong can kao, bu zuo wei tou zi yi ju. tou zi shi you feng xian de, suo yi jin ru shi chang shi yao jin shen. ze ren bian ji: chang fu qiang

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